Having endured probably warmest and driest autumn on record good news arrived this week with the announcement the 2015-16 El Nino event is over.
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The good news was contained in the latest seasonal outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Their outlooks suggests little chance of returning to El Niño levels, in which case mid-May will mark the end of the 2015–16 El Niño.
International climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with six of eight models suggesting La Niña is likely to form during the austral winter (June–August).
La Nina conditions are the reverse to those of its ‘sister’ El Nino with higher rainfall, cloudiness and cooler conditions.
Typically during La Niña, winter-spring rainfall is above average over northern, central and eastern Australia.
The Southern Oscillation Index has also returned to neutral levels having been in negative territory for much of the late summer and autumn period.
A change in the weather pattern can’t come quick enough for landholders.
For those in the Upper Hunter and in areas to the west of Gloucester faced with severe shortages of on-farm water they will be looking for some decent rainfall to get the run-off needed to replenish their dams.
Although rain has fallen over the range during the last month much of the Hunter and Mid North Coast has remained dry.
It is now a critical time for producers with autumn sown and improved pastures looking for a good drink while there is enough soil warmth to promote their growth.
Rain in the western districts and in Queensland has put a floor in the young cattle market and given export prices a boost.
But only more widespread rain will maintain these prices and improve prices for young cattle.