Upper Hunter has changed since the May 2021 by-election that saw the incumbent Nationals Dave Layzell elected with a 5.8 per cent margin.
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This election, thanks to a redistribution, Mr Layzell's margin is a wafer thin 0.5 per cent making the seat the Coalition's second most marginal seat in the state.
Mr Layzell may take some comfort from knowing Labor has never held the seat but as last year's Federal election showed stranger things can happen.
With 59,694 electors the seat's major centres include Singleton, Muswellbrook, Scone, Dungog and Glouecster and it now includes all of Branxton and the suburbs of Maitland - Lorn and Largs.
Lost in the remaking of the seat was the strongly Nationals area of the Liverpool Plains around Quirindi.
When the seat was held by former Nationals' leader George Souris (1988 - 2015) Upper Hunter was one of the safest Coalition seats sitting on a margin of 30 per cent.
But his successor Michael Johnsen oversaw a dramatic drop in support in the Upper Hunter with the margin reduced to 2.6 per cent in the 2019 election.
He was forced to resign from the Legislative Assembly in March 2021 following allegations he was sexting while in parliament.
Candidates 2023
- Dave Layzell (Nationals)
- Tony Lonergan (Greens)
- Peree Watson (Labor)
- James White (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Calum Blair (Sustainability Australia Party)
- Dale McNamara (Independent)
This year's state election sees Mr Layzell up against candidates who have previously contested the seat in Tony Lonergan, Calum Blair, and Dale McNamara.
Singleton businessman Mr McNamara is running as an independent this time whereas at the May'21 by-election and last year's Federal election he ran as a Pauline Hanson One Nation candidate.
In the by-election he received 12.32 per cent of the vote.
Newcomer and major threat to Mr Layzell being re-elected for a second term is Labor's Peree Watson.
When she announced her candidacy she said he was prompted to do so following the redistribution as it now meant her hometown of Branxton was entirely in the electorate.
She has been campaigning since late 2022 in her distinctive red coat that now adorns her corflutes.
Major local issues for the candidates include road funding, call for a new high school at Huntlee, funding for district hospitals and more healthcare workers in particular in the rural communities.
The Hunter Gas Pipeline, acquired by gas producer Santos in August 2022, was mentioned in the May 2021 by-election but this election for affected landholders from the Upper Hunter right through to Maitland it is major election issue.
According to Santos the 833-kilometre pipeline already has planning approval from the NSW and Queensland governments and once constructed will likely connect the Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub in Queensland to Newcastle.
Election timeline
On Monday, March 6 the election period commences with writs issued at 6pm.
March 8: Candidates have until 12pm to submit their nominations.
March 9: The confirmed candidates will be announced at 10am and a ballot drawn to determine the order in which they will appear on the ballot paper.
March 18: Early voting opens
March 20: 6pm: Postal vote applications close
March 25: Election Day 8am-6pm, the day of the democracy sausage.