Earlier this year the long range forecast issued by the Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) suggested we would have a relatively dry May.
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Well no that does not appear to be the case with rainfall figures so far this month in the region being well above average. Singleton's longterm rainfall average for May is 28mm and so far this May Elderslie has received 104mm, Bulga 94mm, Mirannie 80mm.
The change from a dry summer to a wet autumn is welcomed by most particularly the farming sector. But today the BOM has said they are now on La Nina watch - a weather pattern associated with higher rainfall. The last La Nina occurred in the very wet years of 2021-22 and included the devastating floods in Lismore and locally at Broke.
![Webbers Creek at Glendonbrook on Monday 6 May. Many causeways in the district had their first 'fresh' since 2022. Picture supplied Webbers Creek at Glendonbrook on Monday 6 May. Many causeways in the district had their first 'fresh' since 2022. Picture supplied](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/69fUThMh3V6mENHE7Nwkb5/548d0830-c548-45f5-bb48-1460a17ae230.jpg/r0_0_1280_960_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
BOM says while conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are currently neutral, there are some signs that a La Nina may form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. It is important to note, however, that there is a similar likelihood that the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain neutral.
Moving to La Nina watch does not mean that the Bureau is declaring that a La Nina event is underway.
Bureau of Meteorology Climate Manager Dr Karl Braganza said rainfall and temperature forecasts are not based on the status of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Outlook.
"The best guidance for future rainfall or temperature forecasts is the Bureau's long-range forecast.
"The long-range forecast for June to August is showing an increased chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia, and parts of Western Australia and South Australia
"There are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall for most of eastern Australia, including much of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania."
June to August maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above median across all States and Territories.
The Bureau's long-range forecast winter outlook will be released at the end of May, while the Spring and Summer outlooks will be released later in the year.
La Nina, along with El Nino, is part of a natural climate cycle known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).